Saturday, August 11, 2012

Paul Ryan VP selection analysis


Early on Saturday morning the presumptive nominee for the Republican Presidential nomination Governor Mitt Romney announced that Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan would be his running mate for the 2012 presidential election. Rep. Ryan is the first sitting House member to be part of a major party presidential ticket since 1984 when Walter Mondale pick Geraldine Ferraro as they went on to lose by a landslide to Reagan/Bush. Ryan is also only the fifth sitting House member to be a on a ticket since 1900. Rep. Ryan is currently the chairman of the House Budget Committee and has been a member of the House of Representatives since 1999.   Ryan has had experience on the presidential campaign trial when he was a speechwriter for the Dole/Kemp ticket in 1996. 

Even though I would of preferred Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal to the VP nominee the pick of Ryan is still a very good pick. A pick of Ohio Senator Rob Portman or former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty would have been a disaster.  Even though Pawlenty and Portman are capable politicians and are strong conservatives they would have brought nothing new to the table. Portman and Pawlenty would have been good safe picks if Romney was out in front by few points in the polls but since this race will probably be close Romney will need a little extra something that Ryan will provide. With Ryan you not only get youth and energy but also a new angle to campaign on. Ryan also brings a strong conservative record to run on which will be good to help shore of up the Republican base. The New York Times recentlypublished an article that showed Ryan to be the most conservative running mate since at least 1900, the list however only contain those that served in Congress.  

Having Ryan on the ticket makes it much easier for Romney to keep the focus on the deficit and the economy as he added one of the biggest intellectuals in the Republican Party to the ticket. Ryan's expertise in budgets and not being tied to the Bush administration, like Portman, will allow Romney to have the campaign focus on big issues. Which will not only include the economy but issues like entitlement reform. By having the campaign focus on this it makes it much harder for Obama to continue his attacks on Romney's wealth or his tenure at Bain as it will just look petty.  By having a focus on entitlement reform it will make the Romney campaign look like it is not only planning for the present but also for the future.

The only downside to the Ryan pick is that neither Romney nor Paul have significant foreign policy experience. This will probably not matter as the campaign will be about the economy. The only way that foreign policy will matter is if the economy suddenly picks up which will be very unlikely  as Obama's leftist policies have stalled any chance of an economic recovery. Overall this was a very good pick for Romney and should give him the much needed boost Romney needs in order to win in November. Ryan could also help  the Republicans in winning the state of Wisconsin for the first time since 1984.

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